This system has it all — potential superstars and near-to-the-majors help, long-term plays with more upside, with new prospects entering the system every year from successful draft after successful draft along with international free agents who find early success and player development success stories. There are six to ten more players in this system who didn’t make their top 20 but would have made the top 20 for at least 80 percent of the other teams in baseball. There are guys I didn’t even mention below — Jake Vogel comes to mind, still a prospect at age 20 but who hasn’t had the production yet to crack this list — who’d make some teams’ top 20s. There are thirty-odd reasons why I had the Dodgers as the best farm system in baseball, and I’ll talk about them now.
GO DEEPER
MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Diego Cartaya, C (Top 100 ranking: No. 6)
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 219 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
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Cartaya played just a month in 2021 before an injury ended his season, so while that month was impressive (he hit .298/.409/.614 in Low A at age 19, in just 31 games), there was a “prove-it” sentiment among some scouts and other clubs. Well, Cartaya went back to Low A, hit .260/.405/.550, then moved up to High A and hit .251/.379/.476 there, finishing the year with 22 homers and 63 walks in 95 games, all while continuing to improve behind the plate. Cartaya hammers fastballs and offspeed, posting high exit velocities and often out-muscling pitchers with his pure strength, while already showing a good feel for the strike zone even before he turned 21 in September. He’s already better on defense than he was a year ago, but he can catch the ball too close to his body, limiting him probably to fringe-average receiving at his peak, and has had some trouble throwing out runners despite plus arm strength. None of that will matter if he continues to hit for power and get on base like he has so far, and there’s every reason in tools and performance to date to say that he will.
2. Miguel Vargas, 3B/2B (No. 23)
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2017
Vargas was arguably the best hitter in the PCL last year, and certainly the best one under the age of 26, hitting .304/.404/.511 with just a 14.6 percent strikeout rate for Oklahoma City while playing four different positions, putting him in line to be the Dodgers’ second baseman this year if Gavin Lux slides over to short. Vargas has always been able to hit, but his body has improved substantially since he first broke out in 2019, when scouts questioned whether he’d get too heavy or slow-footed for third base; now he’s a plus runner underway and there’s no doubt he could stay at third or handle second. We didn’t see his best bolts in the majors but he’s topped 110 mph off the bat in the minors and hits a ton of line drives, with a swing that might make him more of a 40 doubles/20 homers guy than a 30 homer guy, although either way he’s likely to post OBPs in the upper .300s. I think he’ll be the former, a high-OBP hitter who smashes a ton of doubles, maybe getting to 50 or so in his peak years, with solid-average defense at second or third, but maybe has years where he hits “only” 15-18 homers and is quietly excellent instead.
3. Bobby Miller, RHP (No. 28)
Age: 24 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 29 in 2020
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For pure stuff, Miller has few peers, if any, among minor-league starter prospects. He can sit 96-100 mph and has touched 102 in shorter outings, working with a four-pitch mix where everything is above-average. His changeup has unusual power to it — it shouldn’t be that surprising, if Miller were to throw in the towel, he’d do it harder than anyone else — but also is very deceptive out of his hand, generating swings and misses about half the time he throws it. His slider is 85-91 with sharp downward break, and he’s got a power breaking ball — again, he has power stuff, in case you didn’t catch that earlier — that’s pretty close to 12-6, and I’d probably put it a half-grade over the slider if I didn’t know that the slider was slightly more effective at getting whiffs and chases this year. The one flaw in Miller’s game is that he’s worse with runners on base, in results but also in stuff, losing about half a mile an hour on his pitches and missing fewer bats when he’s working from the stretch. With the bases empty, hitters hit .188/.263/.259 off Miller, but with men on base they hit .278/.335/.451, including eight of the 12 homers Miller allowed on the season. It’s enough that Miller is going to have to make an adjustment at some point to reach his ceiling. It’s No. 1 starter stuff, with close to average command. If he can hold it better when he works from the stretch, he’ll be a top-10 pitcher in baseball.
4. Gavin Stone, RHP (No. 39)
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 159 in 2020
Stone was the Dodgers’ fifth-round pick in 2020, a money-saver out of Central Arkansas who had only just become a full-time starter for the Bears that spring. (His bonus of $97,500 was the fourth-lowest in the entire fifth round, and one of the dozen lowest in the whole draft.) He’s since emerged as the Dodgers’ second-best pitching prospect and isn’t that far behind their top guy, Bobby Miller, who was their first-rounder in the same year. Stone is a very athletic right-hander who works at 94-96 mph with a plus-plus changeup that hitters can’t touch — the whiff rate on the pitch was over 50 percent last year and it’s effective against left- and right-handed hitters, a major reason why he had as close to zero platoon split. His slider is solid-average, mid-80s with short, downward break, good enough to get right-handers to swing and miss but not a pitch he’ll use much against lefties. Stone pitched at three levels last year, from High A to Triple A, and his highest ERA at any of those stops was 1.60; he finished the year with 168 strikeouts in 121 2/3 innings (33.8 percent of batters faced) and a hilarious 1.48 ERA. His command and control are the only things keeping him from a major-league rotation right now, as they’re no better than grade 45, but he’s also not that far away, and he repeats his delivery well enough that I expect him to get to average or better soon and end up at least a No. 3 starter.
5. Dalton Rushing, C (No. 62)
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 40 in 2022
Rushing was Henry Davis’ backup at Louisville until 2022, when Davis was in pro ball after becoming the No. 1 pick the previous year. Rushing exploded as a hitter once he was able to play full-time, hitting .310/.470/.686 for those Cardinals. The Dodgers took him with their first pick at No. 40, and he hit .424/.539/.778 in 28 games in Low A. He’s a very disciplined hitter who doesn’t chase much, and he has plus power that is showing up in games already. He slid to the second round because he didn’t hit well against good velocity, showing just fair bat speed, and he was only a part-time catcher in the spring who threw out 15 percent of runners. He’s an adequate receiver now, and he has a solid-average arm, so it’s possible any deficiencies on defense are a function of his inexperience, not inability. It looks like he can really hit, with pro scouts impressed by what they’ve seen from him so far. If he stays behind the plate, maybe the poor Dodgers finally caught a break with a prospect.
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6. Andy Pages, OF (No. 67)
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 212 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
Pages moved up to Double A last year and took a modest step backward at the plate, although the power still showed up and he hammered left-handed pitching. Pages has plus-plus power and a cannon of an arm, and has generally shown a solid approach at the plate, both in ball-strike recognition and swing decisions. In Double A, he really struggled when right-handers threw him offspeed stuff out of the zone — they’d get ahead with the fastball and expand the zone with the slider, leading him to chase and either miss or make weaker contact. He can catch up to good velocity, and even at age 21 is making major-league quality contact when he squares one up. He’s a fringe-average runner who can play at least solid defense in right, boosted by the arm strength, and could be a soft regular even with his power and good walk rates. There’s significant upside here if he tightens up that approach, though, and can be more of a .260-.270 hitter with 30 homers and similar walk rates.
7. Michael Busch, 2B (No. 74)
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 31 in 2019
Busch was a hard-hitting first baseman at UNC when the Dodgers drafted him at the end of the first round in 2019, but they converted him soon immediately to second base, betting that he would be athletic enough to handle the shift. He has, enough to stay there all the way up through Triple A and potentially start there in the big leagues this spring, where his bat should play enough to make him a solid regular with some upside if he tightens up the contact. Busch struggled with swing and miss when he first got to Triple-A Oklahoma City in May, but cut the strikeout rate as the season progressed. In his first 56 games there — splitting his Triple A time in half — he punched out in 30.5 percent of his plate appearances, but in his last 55 games, he cut that to 21.4 percent. Even with higher whiff rates, he still makes very hard contact and has 30-homer power, although he may end up more in the 20-25 homer range depending on how well he adjusts to major-league stuff. He hits lefties reasonably well, and has become a good enough defender that the Dodgers didn’t even play him at first in Triple A, which gives him a high floor as a soft regular at second with a chance to be an average to above-average one depending on his bat.
8. James Outman, OF (No. 89)
Age: 26 | 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 224 in 2018
Outman has made some real swing changes since the Dodgers took him off an unremarkable couple of years at Sacramento State, and he’s performed better and better even as they’ve moved him up aggressively due to his age. He’s one of the best athletes in their entire system who might have four pluses on the scouting report, definitely a plus run, plus arm, plus power guy who might be a plus defender in center as well. There’s too much swing and miss in the zone here to say he’ll be more than an average hitter, but with his other tools, that makes him a potential star, especially if he can do more against lefties than just hit for power. He’s older than any hitter on this list, but doesn’t have as much baseball experience as the typical 25-year-old. Don’t be surprised if he ends up the Dodgers’ primary center fielder this year.
James Outman (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)9. River Ryan, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 340 in 2021
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Ryan was the Padres’ 11th-round pick out of UNC-Pembroke in 2021, heading to the Dodgers last March in a trade for Matt Beaty. He was a two-way guy before but the Dodgers moved him to the mound full-time after the trade. The switch saw him take off, especially in velocity, as he’s now 93-97 and has even hit 100 mph in a start, with a ton of vertical break on the pitch. He has a three-pitch mix with an above-average slider already, and he’s extremely athletic. He had a limited workload last year but struck out 35 percent of batters he faced between Low A and High A, and that’s in the first year he’s ever started more than four games, even including college. I had some sources suggest him for the back of the top 100 and I’d be surprised if he didn’t make the cut next year.
10. Nick Nastrini, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 131 in 2021
Nastrini is another plus athlete with arm strength and feel to spin, and he’s thrived since the Dodgers took him in the fourth round in 2021 and got him away from UCLA’s coaching staff. He’s 93-98 with a plus curveball that the Dodgers have had him deemphasize in favor of a shorter-breaking but harder slider, while his changeup has really developed in pro ball and was also showing plus by later in the season. His delivery is super-clean, so it’s surprising that he doesn’t throw more strikes — he’s far better than he was in college but still walked 16 in 30 innings after a promotion to Double A. You have to develop this guy as a starter, but if the control never comes he has the stuff to be one of the best relievers in baseball.
11. Jose Ramos, OF
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
Ramos is going to be compared to Pages, inevitably, as they’re both power-hitting right fielders with 80 arms, but Ramos is the poor man’s version of his system-mate due almost entirely to the differences in their approaches. Signed out of Panama for a measly $30,000 bonus in 2018, Ramos had little trouble in Low A between 2021 and 2022, but struggled with contact in High A in 95 games last year, with a 33 percent strikeout rate, but with big game power as well. It’s ball/strike awareness and pitch recognition, although it’s also a sign of how physically talented he is that he could still hit as well as he did with a lack of a real plan at the plate. The gap between him and Pages was especially evident in the AFL, where they hit in the same lineup, and Pages controlled the zone while making more contact while Ramos often looked overmatched. He offers 30-homer power with plus defense in right as a ceiling, which also means even a modest improvement in his plan at the plate gives him a chance at real major-league value.
12. Landon Knack, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 60 in 2020
Knack missed the first month of the 2022 season with a soft-tissue injury, then missed another month later in the summer, all of which might be why he wasn’t the same as before when he was on the mound. He was still up to 97 but more 93-94, with a 55 slider and 50/55 changeup, but got hit harder than before, especially on the slider.
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13. Ryan Pepiot, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 102 in 2019
Pepiot’s changeup was one of the best in baseball in 2021, but it backed up in 2022 and was a big reason why his major-league debut went so poorly — that along with his chronic issues with strikes. He sits 93-95 as a starter and has improved his slider, which averaged nearly 2700 rpms in the majors, to the point where it might be an average pitch for him, although working on that might be why he’s over-pronating on the changeup now, losing some of its tumble as it spins too much. I don’t think he’ll ever have the command to be a big-league starter, but I do think he’ll have the stuff, and if he can’t stick in a rotation he’ll have a chance for extremely high-end value in relief.
14. Emmet Sheehan, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 192 in 2021
Sheehan went from 88-92 mph or so as an amateur for Boston College in the spring of 2021 to bumping 99 later that summer, going from maybe a middle relief prospect to someone who had an outside chance to start. He bullies hitters with the fastball, fooling them with a short mid-80s slider and decent changeup that has good separation from the fastball but poor finish. He’s very athletic and has the 6-foot-5 frame to start, projecting as a more likely reliever now due to command and the inconsistent finish on his secondaries, but with the upside to start.
15. Eddys Leonard, SS
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2017
Leonard was at the very back of my top 100 last year, but took a big step back last year with his promotion to High A, in part because he was added to the 40-man before the lockout and then couldn’t work with the team’s coaches for four months. He showed up lacking some of the strength and power he’d shown at age 20 the year before, without the high contact quality he’d shown, although he actually struck out less at a higher level. He also looked worse on defense, with scouts assuming he’d move off the position, to second or center field. He’ll be 22 this year, at Double A, and has time to get back on track to becoming an above-average regular if he regains the strength he’d had before. His contact quality this year will tell the tale.
16. Michael Grove, RHP
Age: 26 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 68 in 2018
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Grove made his debut last year for the Dodgers, and might slide into the swing role vacated by the now-traded Mitch White. He’s got three major-league pitches in a 93-97 mph fastball that gets chases above the zone and two 55/60 breaking balls, with a lower-spin slider that misses bats in the zone and a higher-spin curveball with depth. What he does not have is something for lefties, and his delivery isn’t very easy to repeat, with a plunge and a pause in the back that disrupts his arm swing. The Mitch White role looks like a perfect fit for him, as the starter role is probably a stretch without a changeup or split.
17. Nick Frasso, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-5 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 106 in 2020
Frasso, part of the return from Toronto for Mitch White, is a high-upside and hyper-athletic pitcher with huge extension and sink but a checkered healthy history. He had a partial UCL tear he had repaired with an internal brace rather than a full TJ, throwing just 59 innings total in the last two seasons. He sits 95-98 with a straight change and a short, downward-breaking slider at 86-88, although the fastball is his best pitch. It’s a rough delivery that he doesn’t repeat, one of maybe three reasons to think he’s a reliever in the long run, but it’s an electric arm attached to a great athlete, an excellent pickup for a swingman the Dodgers didn’t need.
18. Josue De Paula, OF
Age: 18 | 6-3 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
International signing in 2022
De Paula is Stephon Marbury’s nephew, born in Brooklyn but signed out of the Dominican Republic after he moved there at age 14. He’s an advanced hitter who already hits the ball hard even though he’s just begun growing into his body, hitting .350/.448/.522 in the DSL last summer at 17, just a few months after he signed for $500,000. He’s got a quick left-handed bat with loft to come into plus power as he fills out, running well enough for center now but more likely to move to a corner. His bat looks like it’ll profile anywhere, with all the associated variance with prospects who haven’t played in the U.S. yet.
19. Jonny Deluca, OF
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 761 in 2019
Deluca was way too old for High A, with just a month in Double-A Tulsa at the end of the season, but the Dodgers’ 25th-round pick from 2019 out of the University of Oregon has an outside shot at everyday play with enough of a power/speed combo to profile in an outfield corner. He makes hard contact and especially whacks fastballs, scuffling somewhat with changing speeds as he got to Double A and pitchers could move the ball around more effectively. He’s a 55 runner with some pop, probably not enough speed for center but plenty for a corner. If he shows he can hit decent offspeed stuff, he’ll project as an everyday guy.
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20. Yeiner Fernandez, C/2B
Age: 20 | 5-9 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019
Fernandez has good feel for contact, with just a 13 percent strikeout rate in Low A last year as a 19-year-old, while bouncing between catcher and second base. He’s got a small 5-foot-9 frame and might be stretched as an everyday catcher, athletic enough for the position but with trouble covering the zone without jumping out of the crouch. He takes a strong hack for a smaller guy who doesn’t whiff, with decent power for someone his size already. He seems more likely to end up in the infield somewhere, but perhaps as someone who can also catch on an occasional basis, with enough bat to make him even a potential regular at second.
Others of note
Second baseman Jorbit Vivas is still a high-contact hitter without much juice, someone who’d be a regular if he could play shortstop, but at second base he’s probably an extra infielder. The Dodgers have him trying to pull the ball more to generate more extra-base power, but it’s probably not the right approach for someone with limited ability to impact the ball, and who doesn’t project to add enough strength to do so in the future. He’s not too different from the just-traded Jacob Amaya, maybe with a little more bat but without the ability to play short. … Left-hander Ronan Kopp is 6-foot-7 and has been up to 100 mph, punching out 40 percent of batters in Low A while working as both a starter and reliever. His command is very spotty, with a long, mechanical arm swing that generates huge power but doesn’t let him locate much. He’s got a decent floor as a short reliever — not by height, I mean, he’s obviously not short like that — because he’s tough on lefties with ridiculous arm strength. The Dodgers took him in the 12th round in 2021 out of an Arizona junior college. … Shortstop Rayne Doncon struggled most of the year in his first stint in the ACL, but did finish very strongly and earned a promotion to High A for the last couple of weeks, with a longish swing but good feel for contact and real power. He’s not a shortstop and probably moves to third or even right field. He’s a top-20 guy in every system except this one. … Right-hander Edgardo Henriquez has hit 100 in the past and still has plus-plus velocity, but probably doesn’t have the third pitch or control to start. He underwent Tommy John surgery in December, as did right-hander Carlos Duran, who might have the best slider in the system — and one of the very best in all of the minors — with a big fastball. Duran is 6-foot-7 and looks like he’s about 90% legs, but he’s got a low slot and very arm-heavy, slinging arm action. When healthy, he’s probably a reliever, but maybe an elite one. … Left-hander Justin Wrobleski had Tommy John surgery before the 2021 draft, where the Dodgers took him in the 11th round, and he was back for the very end of the season, working 93-96 mph with carry and a hammer two-plane curveball, also showing promise with a cutter and changeup. It’s a good delivery that should let him start, although he never showed more than about 40 control prior to the injury, with 55 walks in 77 innings between Oklahoma State, Clemson, and the Cape. … Mairoshendrick Martinus, an infielder from Curaçao, is an extremely projectable shortstop with a plus arm, with a good swing from the right side and hard contact for his size, but difficulty recognizing spin. He’s athletic enough for shortstop with a plus arm, more likely to end up at third rather than sticking at short. … Shortstop Oswaldo Osorio signed in January of 2022 out of Venezuela and showed advanced plate discipline at 17 in the DSL, with a solid swing that should continue to produce contact. He’s probably going to end up at third base. His agent was none other than former Giants star Pablo Sandoval. … Alex Freeland was their third-round pick in 2022 out of the University of Central Florida, a disciplined hitter who doesn’t chase but did struggle more with offspeed stuff in the zone, even with the metal bats. He’s a shortstop now but probably moves to second or third in the near future. … Sixth-rounder Logan Wagner is a switch-hitter with quick wrists and some projection to the body for above-average power in the future. He didn’t hit well with wood as an amateur and needs a position, trying third and second in his pro debut. … Right-hander Peter Heubeck was their third-round pick in 2021 out of a Maryland high school, but walked nearly a man an inning in Low A last year with a 7.39 ERA, and probably would have been much better served if short-season leagues still existed. He’s still projectable and has enough quality on his pitches to keep him alive as a prospect. … Lefty Maddux Bruns, their first-round pick in 2021, showed incredible stuff, with two plus pitches in the fastball and curve, but walked 45 men in 44 1/3 innings in Low A at age 20, and until he throws strikes, he’s just a lottery ticket. … Samuel Muñoz got the largest bonus from the Dodgers in their international signing class in January of 2022, signing as a third baseman but moving to the outfield, originally a guy who was supposed to show power but instead hitting for contact and average in his DSL debut. It’s corner bat only but if this debut is at all indicative of his hitting skill, he’ll be the next Pages/Ramos. … Right-hander Moises Brito came over in the Mitch White trade, walking one batter in 40 1/3 innings in the DSL as a 19-year-old, but he’s 85-88 right now without much projection left, so he’s probably an org starter unless the Dodgers can find more velocity.
2023 impact
Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch and James Outman are all ready for major-league roles, although I don’t see how all three end up in the lineup to start the year, with the first two probably competing for the same job in the infield. Michael Grove should make the team as a long man. Ryan Pepiot could as well, or could compete for a job in the rotation again.
The fallen
The Dodgers took right-hander Jimmy Lewis in the second round in 2019, signing him for a seven-figure bonus, but he’s been a mess in limited time in pro ball, walking 24 in 25 innings last year between the ACL and Low A, mostly in relief.
Sleeper
Take your pick. For next year’s top 100, I’m looking at River Ryan, while if we’re talking about future top 100s beyond that I’d suggest Josue De Paula.
(Top photo of Diego Cartaya: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
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